Devrim Highs Again
By admin • Apr 22nd, 2008 • Category: 007, Devrim, HVB, PR ProgramLooks like Devrim found a quick trade to take, added a bit to his month.
Getting Ian’s deal done, hopefully we can get him rolling, he’s local so hopefully we won’t have the issues we’ve had with PR to get him going. Sounds like extremely low risk with great upside, we shall see what really happens.
K-3 I hear is off like 15%, yuck.
Also hear 007 had a bad day or two, down over 1% on the month, but they have big up days too.
HVB ripping it up this month, up over 8%, have added to them several times, and again yesterday. That’s a solid program.
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I hope sharing my Devrim experience can benefit others. I heard about Devrim over a year ago from Tom. I stayed on the sidelines and waited several months. Finally i opened an account to begin trading on Nov 1st 2007 (at Devrim’s home firm: BTR). At the time they had two trading leverage programs namely “regular” and “agressive”. I was told to expect around 8% /month with the regular program, which is the one that i subscribed. I closed my account the end of March 2008 and recieved a wire for the funds promptly on April 1st 2008. Myy account appreciated exactly 21.52 percent over five months.
So here are some comments. At BTR i checked my account almost everyday and i never saw the large whipsaws (drawdowns) that others mentioned at PFG. (i believe some of the PFG issue could have been inaccurate mark-to-market prices). So i averaged around 4 percent per month. I was told with the “regular” leverage program to expect a 25% drawdown and a 8% return per month. So with most investments i would be pleased with this return, however I felt this program was different when looking beyond the numbers. The main reason i closed the program was Devrim’s style of trading. Agressively dollar cost averaging as your position goes against you (in my opinion) is very likely to result in a very large set-back at some point. So i felt like i was playing the odds which were not in my favor.
I really wish that Devrim would change his style to trade small leverage at the beginning of the month and then really get agressive as he builds up profits. Instead it appears that he becomes agressive once in a drawdown. I believe that this would result in a much steaper equity curve (an less smooth), however the risk/reward would be much better in my opinion.
With the above comments i still believe Devrim is very talented and i hope his winning streak continues. I am not in any way implying that i know more about trading than Devrim. However, from the perspective of an investor i no longer thought the risk/reward was favorable. I also should add that my experience at BTR was good. They had no issues with me closing my account. I also have spoken with Devrim on the phone and he seems to be very nice and knowlegeable.
I hope sharing my experience will be useful to someone. I also wish those currently investing with Devrim a prosperous future.
cheers.
Thanks for the input b. I agree Devrim certainly takes risk and isn’t for everybody.
Recently, after you got out of BTR he did take a significant swing in equity there.
I agree, it would be great if he smoothed out the equity curve, for certain.
b, I really appreciate those comments. From an outsider looking in it’s nice to get an opinion from someone who doesn’t have a bias and who has actually has money with and understands the risks the trader is taking. It sounds to me like you feel it’s not if, but when Devrim will have a large draw-down due to his style of trading. I’m curious if you know of any managers you have personally had money with who you felt comfortable with who gave decent (2%+/month) returns? As I’m sure you know, playing this game is hard because finding individuals to give you an honest, unbiased opinion who also understand trading and the risks involved with each particular trading style is pretty much impossible. I haven’t put money with anyone yet - just watching so far - and Devrim seems to be the only one putting up consistent returns over a long period of time - and if I do end up going with him, I’ll definitely go in with my eyes wide open. Thanks again, your comments are appreciated.
netlink,
I am glad you found the comment useful. Most of this blog is dedicated to “emerging managers” and under that category i have money with one manager showing promise. There are 2 or 3 in the pipeline that may have potential. All of these i speak of are from Tom. I met Tom 6 years ago. I have watched him earn his way in this crazy “alternative investment arena”. He is very well networked. In my opinion Tom is the only person i know who is trying to work with integrity in this otherwise corrupt businessplace. So send a note to Tom regarding investments. He knows of the ones i am referring to and has the proper channels to place money with them.
b