FX Managers
By admin • Jul 10th, 2008 • Category: 007, Armada, Devrim, HVB, IanIan flat, up 2% on the month so far, good to see. 007 doing well, up over 4% on the month I’m told, terrific to see. Swing starting soon at PFG. UFX also starting Monday, on another account he made some money today. Known him for a while, hope he pans out. Armada is also up and I’m told making money.
Devrim takes another swing back down, stuck in Euro and AUD against him. This has been the longest and deepest drawdown to date, though not exponentially worse than the previous ones. And he continues to trade and try and work out of it. We’ll see what happens, obviously would be great to have him rip to the upside.
It would be nice to find that one trader who is so good we can put all our money with him and let it ride - always looking for that and we hope to come upon that some day, but in the meantime I think to be successful we have to always be seeking out new talent, and maintain that discipline in doing so even when things are going well for our existing traders. We should always work to keep the pipeline full and share our experiences with each other to save time and effort in finding the winners and sorting through the ones who can’t trade or whose systems no longer work. I have a full plate on new research to do, and have what seem to be solid leads on talented guys from good sources. If anybody wants to share with me or everybody, please do.
Does anybody have money with Mango? Haven’t started Rove yet. HVB has been flat to down this month, earnings season is coming up so hope that treats us right, it has in the past.
To learn more about investing with managed accounts, contact us.
I started a small account with Rove last week - up about 2.0% gross on the first trade. Nothing has been traded in the past few days, however.
[…] Original post by admin […]
Tom, check your email. I am interested in some information sharing, and also in talking to you about Ian.
Tom
Do you know anything about these Mango folks or Rove?
Up about 3% or so for Rove for the month of July
Can you verify that their numbers are correct as reflected on their website? How long have you been invested with them?
I have been with them since July of last year. I can verify all of the numbers posted are 100% correct. Whats really funny is my first month with them they had their worst draw down to date…. just my luck… I decided one month wasn’t enough to conclude on how they are. I’m glad I stuck with it and they have been solid ever since.
John
Hi John,
Which clearing firm have you been using with Rove since July 2007? I need to contact the clearing firm to do my due diligence. I also know that they use a couple different clearing firms, so im wondering which clearing firm the “theoretical” acct results were placed through.
Would you mind sending Tom your account statements? That would be a great help for everyone here.
John,
Please provide the statements. If you look at Roves performance page it has the following hypothetical disclosure. No Managed account in their right mind will have a hypothetical disclosure like this if they don’t need to by law.
Hypothetical performance results may have many inherent limitations, some of which are described in the risk warning. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk. Variables such as the ability to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses as well as maintaining adequate liquidity are material points which can adversely affect actual real trading results.
I’m curious about Rove as well. I would like to see if John could provide statements to Tom as well. I called and asked about previous results and was emailed this.
Hi Paul,
You have recently made an inquiry over the phone.
Unfortunately we do not provide past statements as company policy. We have seen too many fabricated results from other managers, or results from demos, or results from a $1000 account, all of which in our eyes are quite meaningless, and want to avoid going down that path altogether. We feel live account tracking speaks much more than historical data. All clients should be testing on their own instead of trusting past performance we provide or anybody provides. We feel past figures should only serve a guideline for our line of investment, and should by no means be used as a measure of absolute expectation. While we respect due diligence from people, we also constantly remind them of its limitations.
What we do for some people is provide the most recent 30 days statement, to give them a better idea of money management and leverage, and do not wish to have it serve as a reassurance of performance. Let us know if you would like that from us to help you with your investment decision. Thank you.
Rove Capital
Also, for those type of returns the amount under management didn’t seem that large to me. Makes me wonder if things will change if/when the dollar amount goes up.
Im going out on a limb here, but in my opinion, John is advertising for Rove posing as a customer which is very deceitful. View past comments under other days by him and you will see what I mean.
My crystal ball tells me he will make up some sort of a reason for not providing his acct statements, then we will propably not see “John” anymore.
Paul, any firm with those sort of numbers would gladly provide their acct statements. Think about it, there is no better way to market than showing live acct statements that verify the numbers.
I myself am going to contact Oanda tomorrow and see if they can verify the returns are accurate, if not, my next call will be to the NFA and CFTC.
Mike, That’s what I was thinking. I know I would be proud of them. Hopefully, John provides them to Tom. That would all end all arguments imo. Also, If you don’t mind, keep us informed of your findings.
I will provide statements to tom ,
I am in no way associated with rove capital. Can’t a guy be happy and satisfied with an investment that they say good things about them? I have met them all in person and I have been to their offices. I would be considered their offline client base, so you could say they are friends of friends of mine since it was all referral base. Anyhow I will get in touch with tom and get him statements. I am still fairly new to this type of investment and am actually looking to diversify into more managers, hence my participation in this blog.
Sounds wonderful John. Live account statements since july 2007 would be great. I will be the first to appologize after that. I have also sent an email to Oanda asking them to confirm some things so I will also have more tomorrow, if they respond…
John,
I appreciate your response. I don’t want you to think I doubted what you were saying but in my past experiences the results seem to “suddenly” change when I get involved. It’s nice to have verifiable results from someone else who has been in for a while. I personally was a little concerned when I talked to them eariler in the week. It made me wonder why they didn’t want to share more information. I’m glad you’ve had good success and hope you keep us informed in the future. I know I’ll be watching them closely. Thanks again.
Tom,
How much extra latitude do you give Devrim since you’ve been with him so long? I noticed you’re seriously considering jettisoning Triton after only a month or two and a 16%+ drawdown. I’m wondering when your patience with Devrim will be exhausted. The Devrim fund is currently at its all-time low, down over 41% from peak-to-valley in 2X accounts (9:00 a.m., EST, July 11). He’s trading in a manner that reflects desperation. Like I wrote before, he shouldn’t be swinging for the fences trying to make everything back in one month. He has twice left 8-9% gains on the table with his AUD/USD and EUR/USD positions this week only to see them reverse into a huge loss. So, he keeps digging a bigger and bigger hole. The fundamentals suggest that the USD is only going to go much lower from here, especially if the U.S. government has to bail out Fannie and Freddie to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars in new deficit spending. So, I question the wisdom of consistently taking big long positions in the dollar against stronger currencies like the Australian Dollar and the Euro.
Devrim down 45% peak-to-valley and counting in 2x accounts…. Ouch….. When to cry “Uncle” and get out???
Couple thoughts-
Devrim is perplexing, I still think he is a talented trader and he has the capacity to make this money back, nevertheless this drawdown is tough to stomach.
If Rove really has performed as well as they have, why on Earth would they not allow investors to see brokerage statements. It sure makes it seem like they are trying to hide something. It is troubeling to say the least. All I can say is thank goodness the NFA/CFTC is finally stepping in to regulate this market. Why they didn’t do it years ago baffles me.
ForexTrader- good question - on Triton he told me 10.8% was his worst drawdown. I kept dropping his leverage and still saw well over that 10.8% drawdown. Devrim has always been up front and told me 20-30% drawdowns were possible, plus he has a long history of making me money, verifiably. Triton didn’t have that history with me, so I was quick to cut him. If I hadn’t dropped the leverage, I expect I’d be down well over 20%, more than double what I was told. The 16% I reported was on his account, not mine, as I adjusted the leverage so much as he continued to lose. Plus he has had a long string of losing days stretching into weeks, hence my decision. Devrim I still believe in based on his past and the money he’s made us, he’s proven he can do it for well over a year on real money I’ve had with him or watched through other’s accounts - maybe his system is broken or the markets have changed or something, so maybe cut him, maybe not, difficult decision, I’ve got smaller and smaller money with him, have a small position at present to watch him with.
Here is a copy of my conversation with Rove today. You can read between the lines. I think Rove is trying to pull a trick, we have seen this before. As far as I know, it is against NFA regulations to post hypothetical returns if you have more than 3 mos live returns on a particular program. If they will not confirm their results are live, then it has to be hypothetical.
Think about it, if you have verifiable, live returns, there is no way you are breaking any regulations by stating the truth.
I will admit, I have an alterior motive for calling them out on what I perceive as a bunch of crap as I manage another managed acct. I am sick and tired of people trying to pull tricks in order to show better returns or overshadow losses. If I got a bettter answer from them today I would even consider working a deal and raising money for them as I am a firm believer in diversifying ones portfolio.
Here was my conversation:
You are now chatting with RoveCapital 1 (General)
RoveCapital 1: Hello, how may I help you ?
Mike Johnston: Hi, I am viewing your performance record on your site and noticed the hypothetical disclosure. Which months are hypothetical trading and which months are from live trading?
RoveCapital 1: We are pending registration with the NFA and in the midst of having our performance being audited. Until our performance is audited, we can not claim them to be live trading.
Mike Johnston: I dont see any problem with stating that a certain month is from live trading is in fact it was. There is nothing wrong with stating the truth
RoveCapital 1: I would have to ask our senior managers regarding that, I am told that until we have performance audited we either have to put the hypothetical warning up or not have performance posted.
RoveCapital 1: As you may know any one can just claim live results and fabricate account statements.
Mike Johnston: So the NFA is auditing your performance right now?
RoveCapital 1: We must submit audited performance to them before we can be registered
RoveCapital 1: if we don’t submit audited performance, we can not post any historical performance
RoveCapital 1: only 3 month of hypothetical
RoveCapital 1: The new regulations will require all managers / companies to be registered
RoveCapital 1: so we are trying to comply with these changes as soon as possible
Mike Johnston: I see, can you provide me any of your live account statements to view, possibly at least 6 mos of performance?
RoveCapital 1: Do you want me to take down your email, and have one of our senior managers contact you regarding past statements?
Mike Johnston: yes that would be great, deltatrader508@aol.com
RoveCapital 1: Great I have noted your email, after trading hours our senior traders will get back to you
Mike Johnston: I would rather be able to know if whats on your site is live performance or hypothetical before investing, I would rather not have to roll the dice and hope its real performance
Mike Johnston: There must be some way for you to ease my concerns
RoveCapital 1: Yes, I understand your concerns and you should be doing due diligence.
Mike Johnston: Ok thanks, I look forward to the email from your manager, have a good weekend
To make a long story short, I never received an email from their senior manager with the live acct statements. Im sure John never provided Tom his statements today either. I doubt we will be seeing John much more.
Mike
I emailed them a few days ago about seeing statements and they replied with some BS line about comany policy doesn’t allow them to disclose their statements. To me that is the largest red flag of all. I can see how the line the gave you about the NFA audit could be true, but I don’t know of any rule prohibiting them from showing an actual statement and allowing you to draw your own conclusions from it. It sure seems like they are trying to hide something to me.
Stuart, You are 100% correct! If the company does not want to disclose their customers’ statements, they should always have at least a small internal account from which they could provide the statments. In my experience it’s the red flag as well.
We all tend to overanalyze FOREX traders’ performance history to death. Case in point: I’ve invested in no fewer than eight managed FOREX funds over the past nine months, and only two remain standing as anything other than a collosal money loser (I’ve only had one of those two for a week - Rove - so that’s statistically insignificant). I have not selected these funds at random, either. I spent countless hours doing due diligence and invested only in those funds where the trader had demonstrated consistenly high returns over at least a six-month period, with minimal drawdowns. It didn’t matter. Even with a strong performance history in their favor, of the eight funds I had money in for more than one month, NONE of them were profitable, or even close. I am in two funds now that ARE profitable - Rove (up 3.6% after one week), and Spice Fund (up about 1.5% after one month). The others didn’t just lose a little bit of money, they all had historic drawdowns within months of me investing. My point is - and Tom will back me up on this (see: Triton, Devrim) - you can do all the due diligence in the world and analyze actual trading records to death, but in the end, it’s not a reliable indicator of future performance!! What matters is how the trader performs once YOUR money is on the line, and three times out of four, the performance and risk management changes dramatically!
I put $1,000 into Rove about 8-10 days ago because I knew the only way I would know for sure how the fund would perform is if they traded MY money. Since trading records with other people’s money have proven to be a contrary indicator to how that fund will perform with MY money, why would I place so much value and significance in seeing an actual brokerage statement? Instead of fretting about seeing an actual brokerage statement and running with crazy conspiracy theories about “they must be hiding something,” why not take advantage of the limited time offer to risk just $1,000 to see for yourself whether Rove is a profitable, well-manged FOREX fund? If it was $5,000 or $10,000, I would have passed on it without corroborating third-party evidence of success from a fellow FOREX investor. But, $1,000 is nothing to risk in this game…. and no, I have nothing to gain from endorsing Rove Capital.
In fact, I’ll be the first to turn on them down the road if they turn out to manage my money like Devrim has.
I promise this: you will be more comfortable risking $1,000 in a promising fund without brokerage statements verifying past performance than you would be risking $10,000 (10 times as much) on another fund that has provided you with brokerage statements showing past trading history and risk management. I’ve done it both ways, and I’ll prefer a 3.6% gain on a $1k investment rather than an 85% loss on $10k.
ForexTrader, I think that is what the concern is here. Like you said, it is hard enough to trust brokerage results, much less, hypothetical ones (in the case of Rove). I think what got all this started was John saying he’s been a customer for basically a year and had good success. Several of us wanted him to verify those results. Hopefully by working together we can all limit our exposure and cover more ground trying to find the trader that meets our expectations.
Aside from confirming reported results, there are two main reasons why I want to see trade history.
1) To see what the intra-month draw downs look like. If a trader has a history of large intra-month drawdowns, you have to figure that sooner or later he is going to get caught in a drawdown on the last day of the month. Most trader don’t like analyze their own intra-month drawdowns and they often don’t accurately report them.
2) I also look to see what the trading pattern looks like in reality, not based on a written summary. Everybody writes a nice sensible paragraph to describe their trading style and their risk, but they often break away from that style in a crunch. By looking at it myself I can know when he starts trading outside his own rules in the future or if he consistently broke his own rules in the past.